Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Drought Variability Using CWSI in the Koshi River Basin (KRB).

Drought is one of the most frequent meteorological disasters, and has exerted significant impacts on the livelihoods and economy of the Koshi River Basin (KRB). In this study, we assessed drought patterns using the Crop Water Shortage Index (CWSI) based on the MOD16 product for the period between 2000 and 2014. The results revealed that the CWSI based on the MOD16 product can be act as an indicator to monitor the characteristics of the drought. Significant spatial heterogeneity of drought was observed in the basin, with higher CWSI values downstream and upstream than in the midstream. The midstream of the KRB was dominated by light drought, moderate drought occurred in the upstream, and the downstream was characterized by severe drought. The monthly CWSI during one year in KRB showed the higher CWSI between March to May (pre-monsoon) and October to December (post-monsoon) rather than June to September (monsoon), and the highest was observed in the month of April, suggesting that precipitation plays the most important role in the mitigation of CWSI. Additionally, the downstream and midstream showed a higher variation of drought compared to the upstream in the basin. This research indicates that the downstream suffered severe drought due to seasonal water shortages, especially during the pre-monsoon, and water-related infrastructure should be implemented to mitigate losses caused by drought.

Meta-analysis of urbanization impact on rainfall modification.

Even though it is known that urbanization affects rainfall, studies vary regarding the magnitude and location of rainfall change. To develop a comprehensive understanding of rainfall modification due to urbanization, a systematic meta-analysis is undertaken. The initial search identified over 2000 papers of which 489 were carefully analyzed. From these papers, 85 studies from 48 papers could be used in a quantitative meta-analysis assessment. Results were analyzed for case studies versus climatological assessments, observational versus modeling studies and for day versus night. Results highlight that urbanization modifies rainfall, such that mean precipitation is enhanced by 18% downwind of the city, 16% over the city, 2% on the left and 4% on the right with respect to the storm direction. The rainfall enhancement occurred approximately 20-50 km from the city center. Study results help develop a more complete picture of the role of urban processes in rainfall modification and highlight that rainfall increases not only downwind of the city but also over the city. These findings have implications for urban flooding as well as hydroclimatological studies. This meta-analysis highlights the need for standardizing how the results are presented in future studies to aid the generalization of findings.

Estimation of the Spatial Suitability of Winter Tourism Destinations Based on Copula Functions.

Climate and weather are important factors that determine winter tourism destinations and snow resources and temperature affect the income of the winter tourism industry. Against the background of climate change, abnormal fluctuations in climate elements bring a series of challenges for winter tourism and cause potential losses to the tourism industry. To effectively assess and plan winter tourism destinations, this study establishes the snow abundance and meteorological suitability indices from snow resource and weather conditions to express winter tourism resources, respectively. The coupling relationship of the two indices was used to analyze the spatial suitability of winter tourism destinations based on the copula function. By case analysis, it was found that the Frank copula one is the best fitting function for winter tourism suitability analysis. The Yushu⁻Jiutai⁻Yitong⁻Dongliao line is the boundary of spatial suitability in the study area. The eastern areas of the boundary have great potential for winter tourism and could strive to develop ice-snow projects, whereas the western regions are relatively weak. This study has guiding significance for winter tourism destination development and resource spatial layout.

Drought analysis in the Eastern Nile basin using the standardized precipitation index.

Drought is considered by many researchers to be the most complex but least understood of all natural hazards, affecting more people than any other hazard. Drought affects many aspects of community and environment, and any future increases in the water demand will be most critical in periods of severe drought. Geospatial analysis of the historical drought events and their causes can be used to mitigate drought impacts and to develop preparedness plans. This study aimed to identify the changes in drought frequency, magnitude, duration, and intensity in the Eastern Nile basin during the period 1965-2000, using the standardized precipitation index (SPI). An SPI program based on C sharp language was developed to monitor drought in the study area. Twenty-eight meteorological stations distributed on the Eastern Nile basin were chosen to collect monthly precipitation data. For drought analysis, SPI series of 3-, 6-, 9-, 12-, and 24-month timescales have been calculated. Results showed that the study area received several drought events during the long rainy season (June to September) and the short rainy season (March to May) as well. Annual analysis of SPI time series indicated that the study area received several drought events, and the most severity event was during the year 1984.

Carbon monoxide trend in the city of Rio de Janeiro via mann-kendall and cusum tests / Tendências de monóxido de carbono na cidade do Rio de Janeiro via testes de mann-kendall e socom

Hourly mean concentrations of carbon monoxide trend (CO) in the city of Rio de Janeiro (CRJ) was evaluated based on statistical tests. Air quality stations used were: Central, Copacabana, São Cristóvão and Tijuca from 2010 to 2014. The results of the CO trend based on the Mann-Kendall (MK) test showed an inverse correlation with time, with significant decrease in all seasons. Significant increase trend (Z > 0) and p-value < 0.05 were recorded in Centro and Tijuca in 2010 and 2012 with magnitude between 0.0224 and 0.0067 ppm/year. Insignificant increase occurred only in São Cristóvão (2011) for positive values (Z > 0) and p-value > 0.05. CUSUM test showed that Q magnitude did not exceed the critical value at 1% and 5% probability levels. Cumulative Sum Test (CUSUM) showed homogeneous and significant CO concentrations. Significant abrupt changes occurred in the months of May, June, July, August and September and insignificant in January, February, June, August and November at 1% and 5% probability. CO concentrations occurred in the predominant directions North-Northwest (NNW), South-Southwest (SSW) and South-west (SW). Both sectors are influenced by the main synoptic systems (Frontal System and South Atlantic Subtropical High) that act on CRJ. MK and CUSUM tests proved to be efficient in evaluating trends and abrupt changes in CO concentrations and air quality stations in the CRJ.

Foi avaliada a tendência das concentrações médias horárias de monóxido de carbono (CO), com base em testes estatísticos na cidade do Rio de Janeiro (CRJ). As estações de qualidade do ar utilizadas foram: Centro, Copacabana, São Cristóvão e Tijuca entre os anos de 2010 a 2014. Os resultados da tendência de CO com base no teste de Mann-Kendall (MK) mostrou uma correlação inversa com o tempo, com diminuição significativa em todas as estações. Tendência de aumento significativo (Z > 0) e p-valor < 0,05 foram registradas no Centro e Tijuca nos anos de 2010 e 2012 com magnitude entre 0,0224 a 0,0067 ppm/ano. Aumento insignificante ocorreu apenas em São Cristóvão (2011) para valores positivos (Z > 0) e p-valor > 0,05. O teste de SOCUM mostrou que a magnitude de Q não excedeu o valor crítico aos níveis de 1% e 5% de probabilidade. O teste das Somas Cumulativas (SOCUM) mostrou que as concentrações de CO foram homogêneas e significativas. Mudanças bruscas significativas ocorreram nos meses de maio, junho, julho, agosto e setembro e insignificante em janeiro, fevereiro, junho, agosto e novembro a 1% e 5% de probabilidade. As concentrações de CO ocorreram nas direções predominantes Norte-Noroeste (NNW), Sul-Sudoeste (SSW) e Sudoeste (SW). Ambos os setores são influenciados pelos principais sistemas sinóticos (Sistema Frontal e Alta Subtropical do Atlântico Sul) que atuam na CRJ. Os testes MK e SOCUM se mostraram eficientes na avaliação das tendências e mudanças bruscas nas concentrações de CO e nas estações de qualidade do ar existentes na CRJ.

Multifractal Downscaling of Rainfall Using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) in the Andes Plateau.

In this paper, a multifractal downscaling technique is applied to adequately transformed and lag corrected normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) in order to obtain daily estimates of rainfall in an area of the Peruvian Andean high plateau. This downscaling procedure is temporal in nature since the original NDVI information is provided at an irregular temporal sampling period between 8 and 11 days, and the desired final scale is 1 day. The spatial resolution of approximately 1 km remains the same throughout the downscaling process. The results were validated against on-site measurements of meteorological stations distributed in the area under study.

Climate change and epidemics in Chinese history: A multi-scalar analysis.

This study seeks to provide further insight regarding the relationship of climate-epidemics in Chinese history through a multi-scalar analysis. Based on 5961 epidemic incidents in China during 1370-1909 CE we applied Ordinary Least Square regression and panel data regression to verify the climate-epidemic nexus over a range of spatial scales (country, macro region, and province). Results show that epidemic outbreaks were negatively correlated with the temperature in historical China at various geographic levels, while a stark reduction in the correlational strength was observed at lower geographic levels. Furthermore, cooling drove up epidemic outbreaks in northern and central China, where population pressure reached a clear threshold for amplifying the vulnerability of epidemic outbreaks to climate change. Our findings help to illustrate the modifiable areal unit and the uncertain geographic context problems in climate-epidemics research. Researchers need to consider the scale effect in the course of statistical analyses, which are currently predominantly conducted on a national/single scale; and also the importance of how the study area is delineated, an issue which is rarely discussed in the climate-epidemics literature. Future research may leverage our results and provide a cross-analysis with those derived from spatial analysis.

Feasibility of daylight-mediated photodynamic therapy for actinic keratosis throughout the year in Central and South America: a meteorological study.

BACKGROUND: Daylight-mediated photodynamic therapy (DL-PDT) is an efficacious treatment option for thin actinic keratosis (AK) that offers advantages over conventional PDT in terms of tolerability, treatment duration, and cost. A clinical study conducted in Australia determined the mean irradiance during a 2-hour exposure to be 305.8 W/m(2) (range: 40-585 W/m(2) ). The protoporphyrin IX light dose is influenced by latitude, weather conditions, and time of year. A recent study of meteorological data concluded that DL-PDT can be performed effectively throughout the year in Australia. OBJECTIVES: Based on the same hypothesis and applying the same methodology, the present study investigated the suitability of daylight to perform DL-PDT in Central and South America. METHODS: Solar radiation and weather data were gathered and analyzed to assess daylight irradiance (light intensity) throughout a full year across 32 geographical locations in Central and South America. RESULTS: The minimum average daily solar irradiance reported was above 305.8 W/m(2) in all locations investigated throughout the year. Annual averages of daily irradiance ranged from 578 W/m(2) in Chihuahua, Mexico, to 321 W/m(2) in Puerto Montt, Chile. CONCLUSIONS: Daylight-mediated PDT for AK can be performed effectively throughout the year in Central and South America given that weather conditions permit a comfortable 2-hour direct exposure to daylight.

Treatment of face and scalp solar (actinic) keratosis with daylight-mediated photodynamic therapy is possible throughout the year in Australia: Evidence from a clinical and meteorological study.

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Solar (actinic) keratosis (AK) is an emergent concern worldwide and is associated with an increased risk of development of non-melanoma skin cancer, especially squamous cell carcinoma. Daylight-mediated photodynamic therapy (DL-PDT) using methyl aminolaevulinate cream has proved to be an effective, nearly painless, and more convenient alternative to conventional PDT for the treatment of AK. In a phase III, randomised, controlled trial performed in Australia, the mean irradiance (light intensity) received by patients during DL-PDT treatment, assessed via a spectroradiometer, was 305 W/m(2) (min. 40 to max. 585 W/m(2) ) with similar efficacy irrespective of intensity or dose. The objective of the present meteorological study was to assess the suitability of natural daylight to perform DL-PDT for the treatment of face and scalp AK during different periods of the year and different geographical locations and latitudes across Australia. METHODS: To determine daylight irradiance during a complete year in eight different geographical locations throughout Australia, we used meteorological software (Meteonorm, Meteotest, Bern, Switzerland), and available solar radiation and weather data from 1986-2005. RESULTS: The average daily irradiance remained within the levels (40-585 W/m(2) ) measured during the clinical DL-PDT study in Australia, throughout the year and in all geographical locations investigated (yearly average from Darwin 548 W/m(2) to Hobart 366 W/m(2) ). CONCLUSIONS: DL-PDT for the treatment of face and scalp AK in Australia can be performed effectively throughout the entire year as long as weather conditions permit daylight exposure and allow participants to remain under direct light for 2 h.

Spatiotemporal variations of reference crop evapotranspiration in Northern Xinjiang, China.

To set up a reasonable crop irrigation system in the context of global climate change in Northern Xinjiang, China, reference crop evapotranspiration (ET0) was analyzed by means of spatiotemporal variations. The ET0 values from 1962 to 2010 were calculated by Penman-Monteith formula, based on meteorological data of 22 meteorological observation stations in the study area. The spatiotemporal variations of ET0 were analyzed by Mann-Kendall test, Morlet wavelet analysis, and ArcGIS spatial analysis. The results showed that regional average ET0 had a decreasing trend and there was an abrupt change around 1983. The trend of regional average ET0 had a primary period about 28 years, in which there were five alternating stages (high-low-high-low-high). From the standpoint of spatial scale, ET0 gradually increased from the northeast and southwest toward the middle; the southeast and west had slightly greater variation, with significant regional differences. From April to October, the ET0 distribution significantly influenced the distribution characteristic of annual ET0. Among them sunshine hours and wind speed were two of principal climate factors affecting ET0.

Meteorological data analysis using MapReduce.

In the atmospheric science, the scale of meteorological data is massive and growing rapidly. K-means is a fast and available cluster algorithm which has been used in many fields. However, for the large-scale meteorological data, the traditional K-means algorithm is not capable enough to satisfy the actual application needs efficiently. This paper proposes an improved MK-means algorithm (MK-means) based on MapReduce according to characteristics of large meteorological datasets. The experimental results show that MK-means has more computing ability and scalability.

FleaTickRisk: a meteorological model developed to monitor and predict the activity and density of three tick species and the cat flea in Europe.

Mathematical modelling is quite a recent tool in epidemiology. Geographical information system (GIS) combined with remote sensing (data collection and analysis) provide valuable models, but the integration of climatologic models in parasitology and epidemiology is less common. The aim of our model, called "FleaTickRisk", was to use meteorological data and forecasts to monitor the activity and density of some arthropods. Our parasitological model uses the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) meteorological model integrating biological parameters. The WRF model provides a temperature and humidity picture four times a day (at 6:00, 12:00, 18:00 and 24:00 hours). Its geographical resolution is 27 x 27 km over Europe (area between longitudes 10.5 degrees W and 30 degrees E and latitudes 37.75 degrees N and 62 degrees N). The model also provides weekly forecasts. Past data were compared and revalidated using current meteorological data generated by ground stations and weather satellites. The WRF model also includes geographical information stemming from United States Geophysical Survey biotope maps with a 30'' spatial resolution (approximately 900 x 900 m). WRF takes into account specific climatic conditions due to valleys, altitudes, lakes and wind specificities. The biological parameters of Ixodes ricinus, Dermacentor reticulatus, Rhipicephalus sanguineus and Ctenocephalides felis felis were transformed into a matrix of activity. This activity matrix is expressed as a percentage, ranging from 0 to 100, for each interval of temperature x humidity. The activity of these arthropods is defined by their ability to infest hosts, take blood meals and reproduce. For each arthropod, the matrix was calculated using existing data collected under optimal temperature and humidity conditions, as well as the timing of the life cycle. The mathematical model integrating both the WRF model (meteorological data + geographical data) and the biological matrix provides two indexes: an activity index (ranging from 0 to 100), calculated for the previous week and predictive for the coming week, and a cumulative index (ranging from 0 to 1000) which takes into account the past 12 weeks. The indexes are calculated twice a day for each geographical point all over Europe and are corrected based on three types of defined biotopes: urban and sub-urban areas, rural areas, and wilderness and forests. To clarify the presentation, indexes are calculated within intervals and are presented as colour maps grouping index isoclines. We hypothesised that the populations of tick and flea hosts are not lacking and therefore do not affect the numbers of arthropods. However, microclimates and biotopes have a major impact, especially on tick populations, and the results provided by the model must therefore be adjusted to local conditions by specialists, such as local veterinarians. Where fleas are concerned, the model takes into account their outdoor activity and ignores their indoor life cycle. The accuracy of the data was verified throughout 2007 and 2008, using sentinel veterinary clinics and tick samples, as well as comparisons with published surveys. The maps constructed with the model are available to veterinary practitioners on www.FleaTickRisk.com.

Whole house particle removal and clean air delivery rates for in-duct and portable ventilation systems.

A novel method for determining whole house particle removal and clean air delivery rates attributable to central and portable ventilation/air cleaning systems is described. The method is used to characterize total and air-cleaner-specific particle removal rates during operation of four in-duct air cleaners and two portable air-cleaning devices in a fully instrumented test home. Operation of in-duct and portable air cleaners typically increased particle removal rates over the baseline rates determined in the absence of operating a central fan or an indoor air cleaner. Removal rates of 0.3- to 0.5-microm particles ranged from 1.5 hr(-1) during operation of an in-duct, 5-in. pleated media filter to 7.2 hr(-1) for an in-duct electrostatic air cleaner in comparison to a baseline rate of 0 hr(-1) when the air handler was operating without a filter. Removal rates for total particulate matter less than 2.5 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM2.5) mass concentrations were 0.5 hr(-1) under baseline conditions, 0.5 hr(-1) during operation of three portable ionic air cleaners, 1 hr(-1) for an in-duct 1-in. media filter, 2.4 hr(-1) for a single high-efficiency particle arrestance (HEPA) portable air cleaner, 4.6 hr(-1) for an in-duct 5-in. media filter, 4.7 hr(-1) during operation of five portable HEPA filters, 6.1 hr(-1) for a conventional in-duct electronic air cleaner, and 7.5 hr(-1) for a high efficiency in-duct electrostatic air cleaner. Corresponding whole house clean air delivery rates for PM2.5 attributable to the air cleaner independent of losses within the central ventilation system ranged from 2 m3/min for the conventional media filter to 32 m3/min for the high efficiency in-duct electrostatic device. Except for the portable ionic air cleaner, the devices considered here increased particle removal indoors over baseline deposition rates.